Introducing the Reference Track and the Open Track

TS-Arena now separates models into two categories: the Reference Track and the Open Track.

• Which model forecasts best on the same input? The Reference Track is a fair comparison of models. Every model in it is implemented in ts-arena-models, runs on our infrastructure, and sees exactly the context we publish at registration. Its results are fully reproducible by anyone at runtime. Best for researchers.
• What is the best achievable forecast for a series? The Open Track accepts any approach: ensembles, covariates, domain knowledge, human judgement. A result here is a statement about how well the series can be forecast, not about a single model. Since we cannot control the information external participants use for their forecasts, your model runs in the Open Track. Best for proprietary models and practitioners.

To have your model listed in the Reference Track, open an issue or a pull request in ts-arena-models. Models submitted through the API are in the Open Track.